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VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka vs Alians Lypova Dolyna — Persha Liga 2019

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
8/14/2021Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 4Stadion Meteor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka27%
×Draw27%
Alians Lypova Dolyna47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
1.02
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.44

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 41% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
0.88
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.52

allows per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
1.36
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.16

finishing

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka+0.00on par
Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka ↓

Alians Lypova Dolyna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or draw
53%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or Alians Lypova Dolyna
73%
Draw or Alians Lypova Dolyna
73%

Winning margin

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka wins by 2+
10%
Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 1+ goals
64%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 2+ goals
27%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3+ goals
8%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
76%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
42%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka (draw refunded)
36%
Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka attack 0.88 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.52 + VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka scores more
27%
level
27%
Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
47%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka vs Alians Lypova Dolyna

Alians Lypova Dolyna beat VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3-0 in Persha Liga on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Meteor in Dnipropetrovs'k.