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Alians Lypova Dolyna vs VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka — Persha Liga 2019

Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
11/22/2021Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 19Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna54%
×Draw24%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.69
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
0.98

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 72% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

creates per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.69
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
0.96

allows per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.00
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
1.68

finishing

Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alians Lypova Dolyna ↓

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alians Lypova Dolyna or draw
78%
Alians Lypova Dolyna or VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
76%
Draw or VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
46%

Winning margin

Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
29%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
82%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
50%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
24%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 1+ goals
62%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 2+ goals
26%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
71%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alians Lypova Dolyna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.69 + VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka attack 0.96 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
54%
level
24%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka scores more
22%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alians Lypova Dolyna vs VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

Alians Lypova Dolyna and VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka drew 3-3 in Persha Liga on November 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Sumy.