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Voska Sport vs Tikveš — First League 2019

Voska Sport
Voska Sport
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tikveš
Tikveš
11/3/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Stadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Voska Sport40%
×Draw28%
Tikveš33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voska Sport
1.27
Tikveš
1.13

Voska Sport creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 80 away

creates per match

Voska Sport
1.13
Tikveš
1.05

allows per match

Voska Sport
1.20
Tikveš
1.41

finishing

Voska Sport+0.00on par
Tikveš+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voska Sport ↓

Tikveš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Voska Sport or draw
67%
Voska Sport or Tikveš
72%
Draw or Tikveš
60%

Winning margin

Voska Sport wins by 2+
18%
Tikveš wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Voska Sport 1+ goals
72%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
36%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
14%
Tikveš 1+ goals
68%
Tikveš 2+ goals
31%
Tikveš 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Voska Sport (draw refunded)
55%
Tikveš (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voska Sport at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Tikveš away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voska Sport attack 1.13 + Tikveš defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tikveš attack 1.05 + Voska Sport defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Voska Sport scores more
40%
level
28%
Tikveš scores more
33%

Voska Sport at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Voska Sport vs Tikveš

Voska Sport and Tikveš drew 0-0 in First League on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Biljanini Izvori in Ohrid.