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Tikveš vs Voska Sport — Cup 2020

Tikveš
Tikvešadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
5/22/2024CupCup · FinalToše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tikveš33%
×Draw24%
Voska Sport43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tikveš
1.43
Voska Sport
1.65

Voska Sport creates 15% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tikveš
1.00
Voska Sport
2.29

allows per match

Tikveš
1.00
Voska Sport
1.86

finishing

Tikveš+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tikveš ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tikveš or draw
57%
Tikveš or Voska Sport
76%
Draw or Voska Sport
67%

Winning margin

Tikveš wins by 2+
15%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Tikveš 1+ goals
76%
Tikveš 2+ goals
42%
Tikveš 3+ goals
17%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
81%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
49%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tikveš (draw refunded)
44%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tikveš at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tikveš attack 1.00 + Voska Sport defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Voska Sport attack 2.29 + Tikveš defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tikveš scores more
33%
level
24%
Voska Sport scores more
43%

Voska Sport at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Tikveš 2–1 Voska Sport

Tikveš beat Voska Sport 2-1 in Cup on May 22, 2024.

The match was played at Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje.