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Voska Sport vs Struga — First League 2019

Voska Sport
Voska Sport
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Struga
Struga
9/25/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Stadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Voska Sport34%
×Draw28%
Struga38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voska Sport
1.10
Struga
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 106 away

creates per match

Voska Sport
1.13
Struga
1.19

allows per match

Voska Sport
1.20
Struga
1.07

finishing

Voska Sport+0.00on par
Struga+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voska Sport ↓

Struga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Voska Sport or draw
62%
Voska Sport or Struga
72%
Draw or Struga
66%

Winning margin

Voska Sport wins by 2+
13%
Struga wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Voska Sport 1+ goals
67%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
30%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
10%
Struga 1+ goals
70%
Struga 2+ goals
33%
Struga 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Voska Sport (draw refunded)
47%
Struga (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voska Sport at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Struga away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voska Sport attack 1.13 + Struga defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Struga attack 1.19 + Voska Sport defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Voska Sport scores more
34%
level
28%
Struga scores more
38%

Struga at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Struga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Voska Sport vs Struga

Voska Sport and Struga drew 1-1 in First League on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Biljanini Izvori in Ohrid.