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Struga vs Voska Sport — First League 2019

Struga
Struga
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
12/8/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Gradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Struga59%
×Draw24%
Voska Sport18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Struga
1.73
Voska Sport
0.83

Struga creates 108% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 33 away

creates per match

Struga
1.63
Voska Sport
0.88

allows per match

Struga
0.79
Voska Sport
1.82

finishing

Struga+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Struga ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Struga or draw
82%
Struga or Voska Sport
76%
Draw or Voska Sport
41%

Winning margin

Struga wins by 2+
33%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Struga 1+ goals
82%
Struga 2+ goals
52%
Struga 3+ goals
25%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
56%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
20%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Struga (draw refunded)
77%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Struga at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.79 · 112 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Struga attack 1.63 + Voska Sport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Voska Sport attack 0.88 + Struga defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Struga scores more
59%
level
24%
Voska Sport scores more
18%

Struga at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Struga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Struga vs Voska Sport

Struga beat Voska Sport 2-1 in First League on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Gradska Plaža Stadium in Struga.