Voska Sport 3–1 Shkupi 1927: Result & Stats

Voska Sport

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shkupi 1927

10/30/2024

First League · Round 12Stadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Voska Sport42%

×Draw27%

Shkupi 192731%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Voska SportExpected goals in this matchShkupi 1927

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.12

Voska Sport

1.35

Shkupi 1927

1.12

Voska Sport creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 106 away

1.13

creates per match

1.04

1.20

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Voska Sport

1.13

Shkupi 1927

1.04

allows per match

Voska Sport

1.20

Shkupi 1927

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Voska Sport+0.00on par

Shkupi 1927+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voska Sport ↓

Shkupi 1927 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Voska Sport or draw

69%

Voska Sport or Shkupi 1927

73%

Draw or Shkupi 1927

58%

Winning margin

Voska Sport wins by 2+

19%

Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Voska Sport 1+ goals

74%

Voska Sport 2+ goals

39%

Voska Sport 3+ goals

15%

Shkupi 1927 1+ goals

67%

Shkupi 1927 2+ goals

31%

Shkupi 1927 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Voska Sport (draw refunded)

58%

Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voska Sport at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Shkupi 1927 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voska Sport attack 1.13 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.04 + Voska Sport defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Voska Sport scores more

42%

level

27%

Shkupi 1927 scores more

31%

Voska Sport at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff