Shkupi 1927 3–0 Voska Sport: Result & Stats

Shkupi 1927

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Voska Sport

2/18/2024

First League · Round 19Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Shkupi 192755%

×Draw23%

Voska Sport22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shkupi 1927Expected goals in this matchVoska Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.02

Shkupi 1927

1.77

Voska Sport

1.02

Shkupi 1927 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 33 away

1.71

creates per match

0.88

1.17

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Shkupi 1927

1.71

Voska Sport

0.88

allows per match

Shkupi 1927

1.17

Voska Sport

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shkupi 1927+0.00on par

Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkupi 1927 ↓

Voska Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Shkupi 1927 or draw

78%

Shkupi 1927 or Voska Sport

77%

Draw or Voska Sport

45%

Winning margin

Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+

31%

Voska Sport wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Shkupi 1927 1+ goals

83%

Shkupi 1927 2+ goals

53%

Shkupi 1927 3+ goals

26%

Voska Sport 1+ goals

64%

Voska Sport 2+ goals

27%

Voska Sport 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)

72%

Voska Sport (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkupi 1927 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.71 + Voska Sport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Voska Sport attack 0.88 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Shkupi 1927 scores more

55%

level

23%

Voska Sport scores more

22%

Shkupi 1927 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Shkupi 1927 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff