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Voska Sport vs Pelister — Second League 2019

Voska Sport
Voska Sport
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pelister
Pelister
3/22/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 21Stadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Voska Sport57%
×Draw21%
Pelister22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voska Sport
2.06
Pelister
1.21

Voska Sport creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 38 away

creates per match

Voska Sport
3.13
Pelister
1.68

allows per match

Voska Sport
0.73
Pelister
1.00

finishing

Voska Sport+0.00on par
Pelister+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voska Sport ↓

Pelister →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Voska Sport or draw
78%
Voska Sport or Pelister
79%
Draw or Pelister
43%

Winning margin

Voska Sport wins by 2+
34%
Pelister wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Voska Sport 1+ goals
87%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
61%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
34%
Pelister 1+ goals
70%
Pelister 2+ goals
34%
Pelister 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Voska Sport (draw refunded)
72%
Pelister (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voska Sport at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Pelister away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voska Sport attack 3.13 + Pelister defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Pelister attack 1.68 + Voska Sport defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Voska Sport scores more
57%
level
21%
Pelister scores more
22%

Voska Sport at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Voska Sport vs Pelister

Voska Sport beat Pelister 2-1 in Second League on March 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Biljanini Izvori in Ohrid.