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Pelister vs Voska Sport — First League 2019

Pelister
Pelister
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
3/5/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Stadion Petar Miloševski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Pelister48%
×Draw27%
Voska Sport25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelister
1.40
Voska Sport
0.92

Pelister creates 52% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 33 away

creates per match

Pelister
0.98
Voska Sport
0.88

allows per match

Pelister
0.95
Voska Sport
1.82

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pelister or draw
75%
Pelister or Voska Sport
73%
Draw or Voska Sport
52%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+
23%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals
75%
Pelister 2+ goals
41%
Pelister 3+ goals
17%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
60%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
23%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)
66%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.95 · 63 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 0.98 + Voska Sport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.40

Voska Sport attack 0.88 + Pelister defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pelister scores more
48%
level
27%
Voska Sport scores more
25%

Pelister at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Pelister 1–0 Voska Sport

Pelister beat Voska Sport 1-0 in First League on March 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Petar Miloševski in Bitola.