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Voska Sport vs Pehchevo — Second League 2019

Voska Sport
Voska Sport
FT
3 – 0
Pehchevo
Pehchevo
8/27/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 2Stadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Voska Sport67%
×Draw19%
Pehchevo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voska Sport
2.22
Pehchevo
0.92

Voska Sport creates 141% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 36 away

creates per match

Voska Sport
3.13
Pehchevo
1.11

allows per match

Voska Sport
0.73
Pehchevo
1.31

finishing

Voska Sport+0.00on par
Pehchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voska Sport ↓

Pehchevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Voska Sport or draw
86%
Voska Sport or Pehchevo
81%
Draw or Pehchevo
33%

Winning margin

Voska Sport wins by 2+
43%
Pehchevo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Voska Sport 1+ goals
89%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
65%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
38%
Pehchevo 1+ goals
60%
Pehchevo 2+ goals
23%
Pehchevo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Voska Sport (draw refunded)
82%
Pehchevo (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voska Sport at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Pehchevo away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voska Sport attack 3.13 + Pehchevo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.22

Pehchevo attack 1.11 + Voska Sport defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Voska Sport scores more
67%
level
19%
Pehchevo scores more
14%

Voska Sport at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Voska Sport vs Pehchevo

Voska Sport beat Pehchevo 3-0 in Second League on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Biljanini Izvori in Ohrid.