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Pehchevo vs Voska Sport — Second League 2019

Pehchevo
Pehchevo
FT
1 – 2
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
2/25/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17Hasanbeg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pehchevo27%
×Draw23%
Voska Sport50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pehchevo
1.26
Voska Sport
1.78

Voska Sport creates 41% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 15 away

creates per match

Pehchevo
1.59
Voska Sport
2.47

allows per match

Pehchevo
1.08
Voska Sport
0.93

finishing

Pehchevo+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pehchevo ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pehchevo or draw
50%
Pehchevo or Voska Sport
77%
Draw or Voska Sport
73%

Winning margin

Pehchevo wins by 2+
11%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Pehchevo 1+ goals
72%
Pehchevo 2+ goals
36%
Pehchevo 3+ goals
13%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
83%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
53%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Pehchevo (draw refunded)
35%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pehchevo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 2.47, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pehchevo attack 1.59 + Voska Sport defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.26

Voska Sport attack 2.47 + Pehchevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pehchevo scores more
27%
level
23%
Voska Sport scores more
50%

Voska Sport at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pehchevo vs Voska Sport

Voska Sport beat Pehchevo 2-1 in Second League on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Hasanbeg Arena in Chento.