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Voska Sport vs Kozuv Gevgelija — Second League 2019

Voska Sport
Voska Sport
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kozuv Gevgelija
Kozuv Gevgelija
11/5/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 11Stadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Voska Sport69%
×Draw19%
Kozuv Gevgelija12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voska Sport
2.21
Kozuv Gevgelija
0.81

Voska Sport creates 173% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 81 away

creates per match

Voska Sport
3.13
Kozuv Gevgelija
0.89

allows per match

Voska Sport
0.73
Kozuv Gevgelija
1.30

finishing

Voska Sport+0.00on par
Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voska Sport ↓

Kozuv Gevgelija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Voska Sport or draw
88%
Voska Sport or Kozuv Gevgelija
81%
Draw or Kozuv Gevgelija
31%

Winning margin

Voska Sport wins by 2+
45%
Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Voska Sport 1+ goals
89%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
65%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
38%
Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals
56%
Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals
19%
Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Voska Sport (draw refunded)
85%
Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voska Sport at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Kozuv Gevgelija away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voska Sport attack 3.13 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 2.21

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 0.89 + Voska Sport defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Voska Sport scores more
69%
level
19%
Kozuv Gevgelija scores more
12%

Voska Sport at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Voska Sport vs Kozuv Gevgelija

Voska Sport and Kozuv Gevgelija drew 2-2 in Second League on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Biljanini Izvori in Ohrid.