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Kozuv Gevgelija vs Voska Sport — Second League 2019

Kozuv Gevgelija
Kozuv Gevgelija
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
4/26/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 26Stadion FK Kožuf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kozuv Gevgelija29%
×Draw23%
Voska Sport48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.32
Voska Sport
1.77

Voska Sport creates 34% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.71
Voska Sport
2.47

allows per match

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.07
Voska Sport
0.93

finishing

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozuv Gevgelija ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kozuv Gevgelija or draw
52%
Kozuv Gevgelija or Voska Sport
77%
Draw or Voska Sport
71%

Winning margin

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+
12%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals
73%
Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals
38%
Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals
15%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
83%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
53%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)
37%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozuv Gevgelija at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 2.47, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 1.71 + Voska Sport defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.32

Voska Sport attack 2.47 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more
29%
level
23%
Voska Sport scores more
48%

Voska Sport at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kozuv Gevgelija vs Voska Sport

Voska Sport beat Kozuv Gevgelija 2-1 in Second League on April 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kožuf in Gevgelija.