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Voska Sport vs Aresimi — Second League 2019

Voska Sport
Voska Sport
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Aresimi
Aresimi
4/29/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 27Stadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Voska Sport62%
×Draw20%
Aresimi18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voska Sport
2.19
Aresimi
1.11

Voska Sport creates 97% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Voska Sport
3.13
Aresimi
1.49

allows per match

Voska Sport
0.73
Aresimi
1.24

finishing

Voska Sport+0.00on par
Aresimi+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voska Sport ↓

Aresimi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Voska Sport or draw
82%
Voska Sport or Aresimi
80%
Draw or Aresimi
38%

Winning margin

Voska Sport wins by 2+
39%
Aresimi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Voska Sport 1+ goals
89%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
64%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
37%
Aresimi 1+ goals
67%
Aresimi 2+ goals
30%
Aresimi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Voska Sport (draw refunded)
77%
Aresimi (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voska Sport at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Aresimi away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voska Sport attack 3.13 + Aresimi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 2.19

Aresimi attack 1.49 + Voska Sport defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Voska Sport scores more
62%
level
20%
Aresimi scores more
18%

Voska Sport at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Voska Sport vs Aresimi

Voska Sport beat Aresimi 3-1 in Second League on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Biljanini Izvori in Ohrid.