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Aresimi vs Voska Sport — Second League 2019

Aresimi
Aresimi
FT
1 – 2
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
11/12/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 12Stadion Chergane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Aresimi33%
×Draw24%
Voska Sport43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aresimi
1.39
Voska Sport
1.63

Voska Sport creates 17% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Aresimi
1.84
Voska Sport
2.47

allows per match

Aresimi
0.78
Voska Sport
0.93

finishing

Aresimi+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aresimi ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Aresimi or draw
57%
Aresimi or Voska Sport
76%
Draw or Voska Sport
67%

Winning margin

Aresimi wins by 2+
15%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Aresimi 1+ goals
75%
Aresimi 2+ goals
40%
Aresimi 3+ goals
16%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
80%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
48%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Aresimi (draw refunded)
43%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aresimi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 2.47, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aresimi attack 1.84 + Voska Sport defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.39

Voska Sport attack 2.47 + Aresimi defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aresimi scores more
33%
level
24%
Voska Sport scores more
43%

Voska Sport at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aresimi vs Voska Sport

Voska Sport beat Aresimi 2-1 in Second League on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Chergane in Chegrane.