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Voska Sport vs Akademija Pandev — First League 2019

Voska Sport
Voska Sport
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Akademija Pandev
Akademija Pandev
3/2/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Stadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Voska Sport41%
×Draw28%
Akademija Pandev31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voska Sport
1.27
Akademija Pandev
1.07

Voska Sport creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 110 away

creates per match

Voska Sport
1.13
Akademija Pandev
0.95

allows per match

Voska Sport
1.20
Akademija Pandev
1.42

finishing

Voska Sport+0.00on par
Akademija Pandev+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voska Sport ↓

Akademija Pandev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Voska Sport or draw
69%
Voska Sport or Akademija Pandev
72%
Draw or Akademija Pandev
59%

Winning margin

Voska Sport wins by 2+
18%
Akademija Pandev wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Voska Sport 1+ goals
72%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
36%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
14%
Akademija Pandev 1+ goals
66%
Akademija Pandev 2+ goals
29%
Akademija Pandev 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Voska Sport (draw refunded)
57%
Akademija Pandev (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voska Sport at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Akademija Pandev away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voska Sport attack 1.13 + Akademija Pandev defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Akademija Pandev attack 0.95 + Voska Sport defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Voska Sport scores more
41%
level
28%
Akademija Pandev scores more
31%

Voska Sport at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Voska Sport 3–1 Akademija Pandev

Voska Sport beat Akademija Pandev 3-1 in First League on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Biljanini Izvori in Ohrid.