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Akademija Pandev vs Voska Sport — First League 2019

Akademija Pandev
Akademija Pandev
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
4/13/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Stadion Kukuš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Akademija Pandev53%
×Draw25%
Voska Sport22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademija Pandev
1.64
Voska Sport
0.97

Akademija Pandev creates 69% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 33 away

creates per match

Akademija Pandev
1.45
Voska Sport
0.88

allows per match

Akademija Pandev
1.06
Voska Sport
1.82

finishing

Akademija Pandev+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademija Pandev ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Akademija Pandev or draw
78%
Akademija Pandev or Voska Sport
75%
Draw or Voska Sport
47%

Winning margin

Akademija Pandev wins by 2+
28%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Akademija Pandev 1+ goals
81%
Akademija Pandev 2+ goals
49%
Akademija Pandev 3+ goals
23%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
62%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
25%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Akademija Pandev (draw refunded)
70%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademija Pandev at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademija Pandev attack 1.45 + Voska Sport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.64

Voska Sport attack 0.88 + Akademija Pandev defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Akademija Pandev scores more
53%
level
25%
Voska Sport scores more
22%

Akademija Pandev at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Akademija Pandev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademija Pandev vs Voska Sport

Akademija Pandev beat Voska Sport 1-0 in First League on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kukuš in Turnovo.