Vorwärts Brigittenau 1–5 Schwechat: Result & Stats

Vorwärts Brigittenau

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Schwechat

3/22/2026

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 19Sportplatz WAF Gruabn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Vorwärts Brigittenau37%

×Draw23%

Schwechat40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vorwärts BrigittenauExpected goals in this matchSchwechat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.75

Vorwärts Brigittenau

1.69

Schwechat

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 73 away

1.74

creates per match

1.60

1.89

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Vorwärts Brigittenau

1.74

Schwechat

1.60

allows per match

Vorwärts Brigittenau

1.89

Schwechat

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vorwärts Brigittenau+0.00on par

Schwechat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorwärts Brigittenau ↓

Schwechat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Vorwärts Brigittenau or draw

60%

Vorwärts Brigittenau or Schwechat

77%

Draw or Schwechat

63%

Winning margin

Vorwärts Brigittenau wins by 2+

19%

Schwechat wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Vorwärts Brigittenau 1+ goals

82%

Vorwärts Brigittenau 2+ goals

50%

Vorwärts Brigittenau 3+ goals

24%

Schwechat 1+ goals

83%

Schwechat 2+ goals

52%

Schwechat 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Vorwärts Brigittenau (draw refunded)

48%

Schwechat (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorwärts Brigittenau at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.89 · 72 matches

Schwechat away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.63 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorwärts Brigittenau attack 1.74 + Schwechat defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Schwechat attack 1.60 + Vorwärts Brigittenau defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vorwärts Brigittenau scores more

37%

level

23%

Schwechat scores more

40%

Schwechat at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Schwechat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff