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Schwechat vs Vorwärts Brigittenau — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Schwechat
Schwechat
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vorwärts Brigittenau
Vorwärts Brigittenau
9/5/2025Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 4Rudolf-Tonn-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Schwechat60%
×Draw20%
Vorwärts Brigittenau19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schwechat
2.14
Vorwärts Brigittenau
1.13

Schwechat creates 89% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 76 away

creates per match

Schwechat
1.96
Vorwärts Brigittenau
1.04

allows per match

Schwechat
1.21
Vorwärts Brigittenau
2.32

finishing

Schwechat+0.00on par
Vorwärts Brigittenau+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schwechat ↓

Vorwärts Brigittenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Schwechat or draw
81%
Schwechat or Vorwärts Brigittenau
80%
Draw or Vorwärts Brigittenau
40%

Winning margin

Schwechat wins by 2+
37%
Vorwärts Brigittenau wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Schwechat 1+ goals
88%
Schwechat 2+ goals
63%
Schwechat 3+ goals
36%
Vorwärts Brigittenau 1+ goals
68%
Vorwärts Brigittenau 2+ goals
31%
Vorwärts Brigittenau 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Schwechat (draw refunded)
76%
Vorwärts Brigittenau (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schwechat at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

Vorwärts Brigittenau away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.32 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schwechat attack 1.96 + Vorwärts Brigittenau defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.14

Vorwärts Brigittenau attack 1.04 + Schwechat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Schwechat scores more
60%
level
20%
Vorwärts Brigittenau scores more
19%

Schwechat at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Schwechat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Schwechat 3–0 Vorwärts Brigittenau

Schwechat beat Vorwärts Brigittenau 3-0 in Landesliga - Wien on September 5, 2025.

The match was played at Rudolf-Tonn-Stadion in Schwechat.