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Vorwärts Brigittenau vs Dinamo Helfort — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Vorwärts Brigittenau
Vorwärts Brigittenau
FT
1 – 3
Dinamo Helfort
Dinamo Helfort
3/5/2023Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 16Sportplatz WAF Gruabn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Vorwärts Brigittenau29%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Helfort49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorwärts Brigittenau
1.45
Dinamo Helfort
1.96

Dinamo Helfort creates 35% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 61 away

creates per match

Vorwärts Brigittenau
1.74
Dinamo Helfort
2.02

allows per match

Vorwärts Brigittenau
1.89
Dinamo Helfort
1.16

finishing

Vorwärts Brigittenau+0.00on par
Dinamo Helfort+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorwärts Brigittenau ↓

Dinamo Helfort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Vorwärts Brigittenau or draw
51%
Vorwärts Brigittenau or Dinamo Helfort
78%
Draw or Dinamo Helfort
71%

Winning margin

Vorwärts Brigittenau wins by 2+
13%
Dinamo Helfort wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Vorwärts Brigittenau 1+ goals
77%
Vorwärts Brigittenau 2+ goals
42%
Vorwärts Brigittenau 3+ goals
18%
Dinamo Helfort 1+ goals
86%
Dinamo Helfort 2+ goals
58%
Dinamo Helfort 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Vorwärts Brigittenau (draw refunded)
37%
Dinamo Helfort (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorwärts Brigittenau at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.89 · 72 matches

Dinamo Helfort away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.16 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorwärts Brigittenau attack 1.74 + Dinamo Helfort defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.45

Dinamo Helfort attack 2.02 + Vorwärts Brigittenau defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vorwärts Brigittenau scores more
29%
level
22%
Dinamo Helfort scores more
49%

Dinamo Helfort at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dinamo Helfort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vorwärts Brigittenau vs Dinamo Helfort

Dinamo Helfort beat Vorwärts Brigittenau 3-1 in Landesliga - Wien on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz WAF Gruabn in Wien.