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Vortuna Bad Leonfelden vs Union Rohrbach Berg — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Rohrbach Berg
Union Rohrbach Berg
4/19/2025Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 22Sportplatz Bad Leonfelden

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden57%
×Draw22%
Union Rohrbach Berg21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
1.96
Union Rohrbach Berg
1.11

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden creates 77% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
1.80
Union Rohrbach Berg
0.73

allows per match

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
1.50
Union Rohrbach Berg
2.13

finishing

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden+0.00on par
Union Rohrbach Berg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden ↓

Union Rohrbach Berg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden or draw
79%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden or Union Rohrbach Berg
78%
Draw or Union Rohrbach Berg
43%

Winning margin

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden wins by 2+
34%
Union Rohrbach Berg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 1+ goals
86%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 2+ goals
58%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 3+ goals
31%
Union Rohrbach Berg 1+ goals
67%
Union Rohrbach Berg 2+ goals
30%
Union Rohrbach Berg 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden (draw refunded)
73%
Union Rohrbach Berg (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

Union Rohrbach Berg away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden attack 1.80 + Union Rohrbach Berg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.96

Union Rohrbach Berg attack 0.73 + Vortuna Bad Leonfelden defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden scores more
57%
level
22%
Union Rohrbach Berg scores more
21%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vortuna Bad Leonfelden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 0–0 Union Rohrbach Berg

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden and Union Rohrbach Berg drew 0-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bad Leonfelden in Bad Leonfelden.