Union Rohrbach Berg 1–1 Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

Union Rohrbach Berg

FT

1 – 1

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

9/17/2024

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 7Raiffeisen Arena Rohrbach-Berg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Union Rohrbach Berg38%

×Draw22%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Rohrbach BergExpected goals in this matchVortuna Bad Leonfelden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.79

Union Rohrbach Berg

1.75

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

1.47

creates per match

1.77

1.80

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Union Rohrbach Berg

1.47

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

1.77

allows per match

Union Rohrbach Berg

1.80

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Rohrbach Berg+0.00on par

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Rohrbach Berg ↓

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Union Rohrbach Berg or draw

60%

Union Rohrbach Berg or Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

78%

Draw or Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

62%

Winning margin

Union Rohrbach Berg wins by 2+

20%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Union Rohrbach Berg 1+ goals

83%

Union Rohrbach Berg 2+ goals

52%

Union Rohrbach Berg 3+ goals

25%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 1+ goals

83%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 2+ goals

53%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Union Rohrbach Berg (draw refunded)

49%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Rohrbach Berg at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.02 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Rohrbach Berg attack 1.47 + Vortuna Bad Leonfelden defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.75

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden attack 1.77 + Union Rohrbach Berg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Union Rohrbach Berg scores more

38%

level

22%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden scores more

40%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vortuna Bad Leonfelden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff