Vorskla U19 2–3 Oleksandria U19: Result & Stats

Vorskla U19

FT

2 – 3

Oleksandria U19

9/1/2023

U19 League · Round 6Stadion Molodizhnyy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vorskla U1946%

×Draw23%

Oleksandria U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vorskla U19Expected goals in this matchOleksandria U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.39

Vorskla U19

1.77

Oleksandria U19

1.39

Vorskla U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

1.60

creates per match

1.40

1.37

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Vorskla U19

1.60

Oleksandria U19

1.40

allows per match

Vorskla U19

1.37

Oleksandria U19

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vorskla U19+0.00on par

Oleksandria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla U19 ↓

Oleksandria U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Vorskla U19 or draw

70%

Vorskla U19 or Oleksandria U19

77%

Draw or Oleksandria U19

54%

Winning margin

Vorskla U19 wins by 2+

25%

Oleksandria U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vorskla U19 1+ goals

83%

Vorskla U19 2+ goals

53%

Vorskla U19 3+ goals

26%

Oleksandria U19 1+ goals

75%

Oleksandria U19 2+ goals

40%

Oleksandria U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Vorskla U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Oleksandria U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Oleksandria U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.93 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla U19 attack 1.60 + Oleksandria U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

Oleksandria U19 attack 1.40 + Vorskla U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vorskla U19 scores more

46%

level

23%

Oleksandria U19 scores more

30%

Vorskla U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vorskla U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff