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Oleksandria U19 vs Vorskla U19 — U19 League 2023

Oleksandria U19
Oleksandria U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vorskla U19
Vorskla U19
10/20/2024U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 10KSK Nika - Iskusstvennoe futbolnoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Oleksandria U1943%
×Draw26%
Vorskla U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oleksandria U19
1.49
Vorskla U19
1.22

Oleksandria U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Oleksandria U19
1.31
Vorskla U19
0.97

allows per match

Oleksandria U19
1.47
Vorskla U19
1.67

finishing

Oleksandria U19+0.00on par
Vorskla U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria U19 ↓

Vorskla U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Oleksandria U19 or draw
69%
Oleksandria U19 or Vorskla U19
74%
Draw or Vorskla U19
57%

Winning margin

Oleksandria U19 wins by 2+
21%
Vorskla U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oleksandria U19 1+ goals
77%
Oleksandria U19 2+ goals
44%
Oleksandria U19 3+ goals
19%
Vorskla U19 1+ goals
70%
Vorskla U19 2+ goals
34%
Vorskla U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Vorskla U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Vorskla U19 away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria U19 attack 1.31 + Vorskla U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

Vorskla U19 attack 0.97 + Oleksandria U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oleksandria U19 scores more
43%
level
26%
Vorskla U19 scores more
31%

Oleksandria U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Oleksandria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oleksandria U19 vs Vorskla U19

Oleksandria U19 beat Vorskla U19 1-0 in U19 League on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at KSK Nika - Iskusstvennoe futbolnoe pole in Oleksandriia.