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Vorskla U19 vs Kryvbas 2020 U19 — U19 League 2023

Vorskla U19
Vorskla U19
FT
0 – 0
Kryvbas 2020 U19
Kryvbas 2020 U19
9/22/2023U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 8Stadion Molodizhnyy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vorskla U1947%
×Draw23%
Kryvbas 2020 U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorskla U19
1.80
Kryvbas 2020 U19
1.38

Vorskla U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vorskla U19
1.60
Kryvbas 2020 U19
1.38

allows per match

Vorskla U19
1.37
Kryvbas 2020 U19
2.00

finishing

Vorskla U19+0.00on par
Kryvbas 2020 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla U19 ↓

Kryvbas 2020 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vorskla U19 or draw
70%
Vorskla U19 or Kryvbas 2020 U19
77%
Draw or Kryvbas 2020 U19
53%

Winning margin

Vorskla U19 wins by 2+
26%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vorskla U19 1+ goals
83%
Vorskla U19 2+ goals
54%
Vorskla U19 3+ goals
27%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 1+ goals
75%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 2+ goals
40%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vorskla U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Kryvbas 2020 U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla U19 attack 1.60 + Kryvbas 2020 U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Kryvbas 2020 U19 attack 1.38 + Vorskla U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vorskla U19 scores more
47%
level
23%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 scores more
30%

Vorskla U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vorskla U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Vorskla U19 0–0 Kryvbas 2020 U19

Vorskla U19 and Kryvbas 2020 U19 drew 0-0 in U19 League on September 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Molodizhnyy in Poltava.