Kryvbas 2020 U19 2–1 Vorskla U19: Result & Stats

Kryvbas 2020 U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vorskla U19

4/7/2024

U19 League · Round 23Stadion Sparta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kryvbas 2020 U1947%

×Draw24%

Vorskla U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kryvbas 2020 U19Expected goals in this matchVorskla U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.27

Kryvbas 2020 U19

1.68

Vorskla U19

1.27

Kryvbas 2020 U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.69

creates per match

0.97

1.56

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Kryvbas 2020 U19

1.69

Vorskla U19

0.97

allows per match

Kryvbas 2020 U19

1.56

Vorskla U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kryvbas 2020 U19+0.00on par

Vorskla U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kryvbas 2020 U19 ↓

Vorskla U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kryvbas 2020 U19 or draw

71%

Kryvbas 2020 U19 or Vorskla U19

76%

Draw or Vorskla U19

53%

Winning margin

Kryvbas 2020 U19 wins by 2+

25%

Vorskla U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kryvbas 2020 U19 1+ goals

81%

Kryvbas 2020 U19 2+ goals

50%

Kryvbas 2020 U19 3+ goals

24%

Vorskla U19 1+ goals

72%

Vorskla U19 2+ goals

36%

Vorskla U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kryvbas 2020 U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Vorskla U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kryvbas 2020 U19 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Vorskla U19 away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kryvbas 2020 U19 attack 1.69 + Vorskla U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.68

Vorskla U19 attack 0.97 + Kryvbas 2020 U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kryvbas 2020 U19 scores more

47%

level

24%

Vorskla U19 scores more

29%

Kryvbas 2020 U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kryvbas 2020 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff