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Vorskla U19 vs Dynamo Kyiv U19 — U19 League 2023

Vorskla U19
Vorskla U19
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo Kyiv U19
Dynamo Kyiv U19
2/27/2025U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 19Stadion Molodizhnyy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vorskla U1921%
×Draw21%
Dynamo Kyiv U1957%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorskla U19
1.18
Dynamo Kyiv U19
2.06

Dynamo Kyiv U19 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vorskla U19
1.60
Dynamo Kyiv U19
2.76

allows per match

Vorskla U19
1.37
Dynamo Kyiv U19
0.76

finishing

Vorskla U19+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla U19 ↓

Dynamo Kyiv U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Vorskla U19 or draw
43%
Vorskla U19 or Dynamo Kyiv U19
79%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv U19
79%

Winning margin

Vorskla U19 wins by 2+
8%
Dynamo Kyiv U19 wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Vorskla U19 1+ goals
69%
Vorskla U19 2+ goals
33%
Vorskla U19 3+ goals
12%
Dynamo Kyiv U19 1+ goals
87%
Dynamo Kyiv U19 2+ goals
61%
Dynamo Kyiv U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Vorskla U19 (draw refunded)
27%
Dynamo Kyiv U19 (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Dynamo Kyiv U19 away — creates 2.76, concedes 0.76 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla U19 attack 1.60 + Dynamo Kyiv U19 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.18

Dynamo Kyiv U19 attack 2.76 + Vorskla U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vorskla U19 scores more
21%
level
21%
Dynamo Kyiv U19 scores more
57%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Vorskla U19 0–3 Dynamo Kyiv U19

Dynamo Kyiv U19 beat Vorskla U19 3-0 in U19 League on February 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Molodizhnyy in Poltava.