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Dynamo Kyiv U19 vs Vorskla U19 — U19 League 2023

Dynamo Kyiv U19
Dynamo Kyiv U19
FT
1 – 0
Vorskla U19
Vorskla U19
9/17/2023U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 7NTB Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv U1978%
×Draw14%
Vorskla U198%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv U19
2.62
Vorskla U19
0.69

Dynamo Kyiv U19 creates 280% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv U19
3.56
Vorskla U19
0.97

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv U19
0.40
Vorskla U19
1.67

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv U19+0.00on par
Vorskla U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv U19 ↓

Vorskla U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv U19 or draw
92%
Dynamo Kyiv U19 or Vorskla U19
86%
Draw or Vorskla U19
22%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv U19 wins by 2+
57%
Vorskla U19 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv U19 1+ goals
93%
Dynamo Kyiv U19 2+ goals
73%
Dynamo Kyiv U19 3+ goals
48%
Vorskla U19 1+ goals
50%
Vorskla U19 2+ goals
15%
Vorskla U19 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv U19 (draw refunded)
91%
Vorskla U19 (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv U19 at home — creates 3.56, concedes 0.40 · 45 matches

Vorskla U19 away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv U19 attack 3.56 + Vorskla U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.62

Vorskla U19 attack 0.97 + Dynamo Kyiv U19 defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Dynamo Kyiv U19 scores more
78%
level
14%
Vorskla U19 scores more
8%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv U19 vs Vorskla U19

Dynamo Kyiv U19 beat Vorskla U19 1-0 in U19 League on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at NTB Dynamo in Koncha-Zaspa.