Vorskla Poltava W 1–6 Roma W: Result & Stats

Vorskla Poltava W

FT

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

Roma W

10/18/2023

UEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundStadio Tre Fontane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Vorskla Poltava W51%

×Draw20%

Roma W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vorskla Poltava WExpected goals in this matchRoma W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.81

Vorskla Poltava W

2.43

Roma W

1.81

Vorskla Poltava W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

2.25

creates per match

2.50

1.13

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava W

2.25

Roma W

2.50

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava W

1.13

Roma W

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vorskla Poltava W+0.00on par

Roma W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava W ↓

Roma W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava W or draw

71%

Vorskla Poltava W or Roma W

80%

Draw or Roma W

49%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava W wins by 2+

32%

Roma W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava W 1+ goals

91%

Vorskla Poltava W 2+ goals

69%

Vorskla Poltava W 3+ goals

43%

Roma W 1+ goals

84%

Roma W 2+ goals

54%

Roma W 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava W (draw refunded)

64%

Roma W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Roma W away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava W attack 2.25 + Roma W defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.43

Roma W attack 2.50 + Vorskla Poltava W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vorskla Poltava W scores more

51%

level

20%

Roma W scores more

29%

Vorskla Poltava W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vorskla Poltava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Vorskla Poltava W 1–6 Roma W

Roma W beat Vorskla Poltava W 6-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on October 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Tre Fontane in Roma.

Vorskla Poltava W vs Roma W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

UEFA Champions League Women: Vorskla Poltava W 1–6 Roma W