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Roma W vs Vorskla Poltava W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Roma W
Roma W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vorskla Poltava W
Vorskla Poltava W
10/11/2023UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundStadio Tre Fontane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Roma W70%
×Draw20%
Vorskla Poltava W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roma W
1.92
Vorskla Poltava W
0.56

Roma W creates 243% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 3 away

creates per match

Roma W
2.16
Vorskla Poltava W
0.00

allows per match

Roma W
1.11
Vorskla Poltava W
1.67

finishing

Roma W+0.00on par
Vorskla Poltava W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roma W ↓

Vorskla Poltava W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Roma W or draw
90%
Roma W or Vorskla Poltava W
80%
Draw or Vorskla Poltava W
30%

Winning margin

Roma W wins by 2+
43%
Vorskla Poltava W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Roma W 1+ goals
85%
Roma W 2+ goals
57%
Roma W 3+ goals
30%
Vorskla Poltava W 1+ goals
43%
Vorskla Poltava W 2+ goals
11%
Vorskla Poltava W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Roma W (draw refunded)
88%
Vorskla Poltava W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roma W at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Vorskla Poltava W away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roma W attack 2.16 + Vorskla Poltava W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.92

Vorskla Poltava W attack 0.00 + Roma W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Roma W scores more
70%
level
20%
Vorskla Poltava W scores more
10%

Roma W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Roma W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roma W vs Vorskla Poltava W

Roma W beat Vorskla Poltava W 3-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on October 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Tre Fontane in Roma.