Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vorskla Poltava W vs OH Leuven W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Vorskla Poltava W
Vorskla Poltava W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
OH Leuven W
OH Leuven W
9/11/2025UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 3rd Qualifying RoundDen Dreef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vorskla Poltava W54%
×Draw22%
OH Leuven W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorskla Poltava W
1.96
OH Leuven W
1.23

Vorskla Poltava W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava W
2.25
OH Leuven W
1.33

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava W
1.13
OH Leuven W
1.67

finishing

Vorskla Poltava W+0.00on par
OH Leuven W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava W ↓

OH Leuven W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava W or draw
76%
Vorskla Poltava W or OH Leuven W
78%
Draw or OH Leuven W
46%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava W wins by 2+
31%
OH Leuven W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava W 1+ goals
86%
Vorskla Poltava W 2+ goals
58%
Vorskla Poltava W 3+ goals
31%
OH Leuven W 1+ goals
71%
OH Leuven W 2+ goals
35%
OH Leuven W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava W (draw refunded)
69%
OH Leuven W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

OH Leuven W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava W attack 2.25 + OH Leuven W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

OH Leuven W attack 1.33 + Vorskla Poltava W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vorskla Poltava W scores more
54%
level
22%
OH Leuven W scores more
24%

Vorskla Poltava W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vorskla Poltava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Vorskla Poltava W 0–2 OH Leuven W

OH Leuven W beat Vorskla Poltava W 2-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 11, 2025.

The match was played at Den Dreef in Heverlee.