OH Leuven W 0–0 Vorskla Poltava W: Result & Stats

OH Leuven W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vorskla Poltava W

9/18/2025

UEFA Champions League Women · 3rd Qualifying RoundDen Dreef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

OH Leuven W41%

×Draw30%

Vorskla Poltava W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OH Leuven WExpected goals in this matchVorskla Poltava W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.90

OH Leuven W

1.14

Vorskla Poltava W

0.90

OH Leuven W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

0.60

creates per match

0.00

1.80

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

OH Leuven W

0.60

Vorskla Poltava W

0.00

allows per match

OH Leuven W

1.80

Vorskla Poltava W

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OH Leuven W+0.00on par

Vorskla Poltava W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OH Leuven W ↓

Vorskla Poltava W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

OH Leuven W or draw

71%

OH Leuven W or Vorskla Poltava W

70%

Draw or Vorskla Poltava W

59%

Winning margin

OH Leuven W wins by 2+

17%

Vorskla Poltava W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

OH Leuven W 1+ goals

68%

OH Leuven W 2+ goals

32%

OH Leuven W 3+ goals

11%

Vorskla Poltava W 1+ goals

59%

Vorskla Poltava W 2+ goals

23%

Vorskla Poltava W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

OH Leuven W (draw refunded)

59%

Vorskla Poltava W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OH Leuven W at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Vorskla Poltava W away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OH Leuven W attack 0.60 + Vorskla Poltava W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Vorskla Poltava W attack 0.00 + OH Leuven W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

OH Leuven W scores more

41%

level

30%

Vorskla Poltava W scores more

29%

OH Leuven W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "OH Leuven W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff