Vorskla Poltava 2–1 Veres Rivne: Result & Stats

Vorskla Poltava

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Veres Rivne

3/2/2024

Premier League · Round 19Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Vorskla Poltava45%

×Draw27%

Veres Rivne28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vorskla PoltavaExpected goals in this matchVeres Rivne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.03

Vorskla Poltava

1.39

Veres Rivne

1.03

Vorskla Poltava creates 35% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 71 away

1.31

creates per match

0.83

1.24

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava

1.31

Veres Rivne

0.83

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava

1.24

Veres Rivne

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par

Veres Rivne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava ↓

Veres Rivne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava or draw

72%

Vorskla Poltava or Veres Rivne

73%

Draw or Veres Rivne

55%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+

22%

Veres Rivne wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals

75%

Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals

40%

Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals

16%

Veres Rivne 1+ goals

64%

Veres Rivne 2+ goals

28%

Veres Rivne 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)

62%

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.24 · 83 matches

Veres Rivne away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.46 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava attack 1.31 + Veres Rivne defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Veres Rivne attack 0.83 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vorskla Poltava scores more

45%

level

27%

Veres Rivne scores more

28%

Vorskla Poltava at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vorskla Poltava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff