Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava — Premier League 2019

Veres Rivne
Veres Rivne
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Vorskla Poltava
Vorskla Poltava
10/27/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Veres Rivne41%
×Draw27%
Vorskla Poltava31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veres Rivne
1.34
Vorskla Poltava
1.13

Veres Rivne creates 19% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 82 away

creates per match

Veres Rivne
1.28
Vorskla Poltava
0.91

allows per match

Veres Rivne
1.34
Vorskla Poltava
1.40

finishing

Veres Rivne+0.00on par
Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

Vorskla Poltava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw
69%
Veres Rivne or Vorskla Poltava
73%
Draw or Vorskla Poltava
59%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+
19%
Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals
74%
Veres Rivne 2+ goals
39%
Veres Rivne 3+ goals
15%
Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals
68%
Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals
31%
Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)
57%
Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches

Vorskla Poltava away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 1.28 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Vorskla Poltava attack 0.91 + Veres Rivne defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Veres Rivne scores more
41%
level
27%
Vorskla Poltava scores more
31%

Veres Rivne at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Veres Rivne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Veres Rivne 2–2 Vorskla Poltava

Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava drew 2-2 in Premier League on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Rivne.