Vorskla Poltava 1–1 Ruh Lviv: Result & Stats

Vorskla Poltava

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ruh Lviv

12/10/2023

Premier League · Round 17Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Vorskla Poltava43%

×Draw27%

Ruh Lviv30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vorskla PoltavaExpected goals in this matchRuh Lviv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.07

Vorskla Poltava

1.34

Ruh Lviv

1.07

Vorskla Poltava creates 25% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 82 away

1.31

creates per match

0.91

1.24

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava

1.31

Ruh Lviv

0.91

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava

1.24

Ruh Lviv

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par

Ruh Lviv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava ↓

Ruh Lviv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava or draw

70%

Vorskla Poltava or Ruh Lviv

73%

Draw or Ruh Lviv

57%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+

20%

Ruh Lviv wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals

74%

Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals

39%

Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals

15%

Ruh Lviv 1+ goals

66%

Ruh Lviv 2+ goals

29%

Ruh Lviv 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)

59%

Ruh Lviv (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.24 · 83 matches

Ruh Lviv away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava attack 1.31 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

Ruh Lviv attack 0.91 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vorskla Poltava scores more

43%

level

27%

Ruh Lviv scores more

30%

Vorskla Poltava at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vorskla Poltava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff