Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rukh Vynnyky vs Vorskla Poltava — Premier League 2019

Rukh Vynnyky
Rukh Vynnyky
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vorskla Poltava
Vorskla Poltava
4/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Arena L'viv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Rukh Vynnyky42%
×Draw28%
Vorskla Poltava30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rukh Vynnyky
1.27
Vorskla Poltava
1.03

Rukh Vynnyky creates 23% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 82 away

creates per match

Rukh Vynnyky
1.15
Vorskla Poltava
0.91

allows per match

Rukh Vynnyky
1.16
Vorskla Poltava
1.40

finishing

Rukh Vynnyky+0.00on par
Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rukh Vynnyky ↓

Vorskla Poltava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rukh Vynnyky or draw
70%
Rukh Vynnyky or Vorskla Poltava
72%
Draw or Vorskla Poltava
58%

Winning margin

Rukh Vynnyky wins by 2+
19%
Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rukh Vynnyky 1+ goals
72%
Rukh Vynnyky 2+ goals
36%
Rukh Vynnyky 3+ goals
14%
Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals
64%
Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals
28%
Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rukh Vynnyky (draw refunded)
58%
Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rukh Vynnyky at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

Vorskla Poltava away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rukh Vynnyky attack 1.15 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Vorskla Poltava attack 0.91 + Rukh Vynnyky defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rukh Vynnyky scores more
42%
level
28%
Vorskla Poltava scores more
30%

Rukh Vynnyky at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rukh Vynnyky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Rukh Vynnyky 1–1 Vorskla Poltava

Rukh Vynnyky and Vorskla Poltava drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Arena L'viv in L'viv.