Vorskla Poltava vs Livyi Bereh — Persha Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Vorskla Poltava29%
Livyi Bereh40%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Livyi Bereh creates 24% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 29 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under68
- Over32
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Vorskla Poltava ↓
Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Vorskla Poltava at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches
Livyi Bereh away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Vorskla Poltava attack 1.00 + Livyi Bereh defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88
Livyi Bereh attack 1.38 + Vorskla Poltava defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Livyi Bereh at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Livyi Bereh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
BukovynaLivyi Bereh
Chornomorets
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Inhulets
Metal Kharkiv
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Yarud Mariupol'
Probiy Horodenka
UCSA
Prykarpattia
Nyva Ternopil
ChernihivVorskla Poltava
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Metalurh ZaporizhyaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Vorskla Poltava host Livyi Bereh on Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 10:00. The match is part of the Persha Liga 2026/2027 season.
Vorskla Poltava 0 – 1 Livyi Bereh
Livyi Bereh beat Vorskla Poltava 1-0 in Persha Liga on May 3, 2026.
Goals: N. Voloshyn (62').
The match was played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho in Poltava.