Livyi Bereh 0–3 Vorskla Poltava: Result & Stats

Livyi Bereh

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Vorskla Poltava

S. Miakushko 90+3'

M. Kovtaliuk 68'

A. Cheliadin 50'

8/9/2024

Premier League · Round 2Stadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Livyi Bereh37%

×Draw30%

Vorskla Poltava33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Livyi BerehExpected goals in this matchVorskla Poltava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.02

Livyi Bereh

1.08

Vorskla Poltava

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 90 away

0.84

creates per match

0.92

1.11

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Livyi Bereh

0.84

Vorskla Poltava

0.92

allows per match

Livyi Bereh

1.11

Vorskla Poltava

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Livyi Bereh+0.00on par

Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livyi Bereh ↓

Vorskla Poltava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Livyi Bereh or draw

67%

Livyi Bereh or Vorskla Poltava

70%

Draw or Vorskla Poltava

63%

Winning margin

Livyi Bereh wins by 2+

15%

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Livyi Bereh 1+ goals

66%

Livyi Bereh 2+ goals

29%

Livyi Bereh 3+ goals

10%

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals

64%

Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals

27%

Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Livyi Bereh (draw refunded)

52%

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livyi Bereh at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Vorskla Poltava away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livyi Bereh attack 0.84 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.08

Vorskla Poltava attack 0.92 + Livyi Bereh defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Livyi Bereh scores more

37%

level

30%

Vorskla Poltava scores more

33%

Livyi Bereh at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Livyi Bereh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

A. Cheliadin

Vorskla Poltava · M

8.9

Match Events

10'

18'

33'

50'

58'

S. Miakushko← I. Nesterenko

58'

M. Kovtaliuk← D. Ndukwe

61'

Yevhen Pavliuk

62'

E. Astakhov← T. Halas

62'

A. Spivakov← I. Kohut

68'

M. Kovtaliuk↳ A. Cheliadin

69'

R. Nepeipiiev← Sidney

79'

D. Khrypchuk← A. Cheliadin

79'

D. Škrijelj← O. Skliar

83'

V. Korniienko← Y. Pavliuk

90+3'

S. Miakushko↳ D. Škrijelj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LivyiVorskla

Overview

37%Possession63%

8Total Shots9

0.67Expected Goals (xG)1.63

2Corners6

10Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots9

2On Target4

3Off Target4

3Blocked1

4Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

37%Possession63%

268Total Passes449

208Accurate Passes389

78%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides5