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Vora vs Shkumbini Peqin — 1st Division 2019

Vora
Vora
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
1/22/20221st Division1st Division · Round 16Kompleksi Internacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vora67%
×Draw18%
Shkumbini Peqin14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vora
2.33
Shkumbini Peqin
0.98

Vora creates 138% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vora
1.74
Shkumbini Peqin
0.73

allows per match

Vora
1.23
Shkumbini Peqin
2.93

finishing

Vora+0.00on par
Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vora ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vora or draw
86%
Vora or Shkumbini Peqin
82%
Draw or Shkumbini Peqin
33%

Winning margin

Vora wins by 2+
44%
Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vora 1+ goals
90%
Vora 2+ goals
67%
Vora 3+ goals
41%
Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
62%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
26%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vora (draw refunded)
82%
Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vora at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.23 · 61 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vora attack 1.74 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.33

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Vora defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Vora scores more
67%
level
18%
Shkumbini Peqin scores more
14%

Vora at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Vora 3–1 Shkumbini Peqin

Vora beat Shkumbini Peqin 3-1 in 1st Division on January 22, 2022.

The match was played at Kompleksi Internacional in Pezë Helmës.