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Shkumbini Peqin vs Vora — 1st Division 2019

Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vora
Vora
9/11/20211st Division1st Division · Round 1Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shkumbini Peqin35%
×Draw24%
Vora41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkumbini Peqin
1.44
Vora
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 58 away

creates per match

Shkumbini Peqin
1.27
Vora
1.02

allows per match

Shkumbini Peqin
2.13
Vora
1.60

finishing

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par
Vora+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkumbini Peqin ↓

Vora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shkumbini Peqin or draw
59%
Shkumbini Peqin or Vora
76%
Draw or Vora
65%

Winning margin

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
16%
Vora wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
76%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
42%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
18%
Vora 1+ goals
79%
Vora 2+ goals
46%
Vora 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
46%
Vora (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkumbini Peqin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Vora away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.60 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkumbini Peqin attack 1.27 + Vora defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vora attack 1.02 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shkumbini Peqin scores more
35%
level
24%
Vora scores more
41%

Vora at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Shkumbini Peqin 2–1 Vora

Shkumbini Peqin beat Vora 2-1 in 1st Division on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Shkumbini in Peqin.