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Voluntari II vs LPS HD Clinceni — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Voluntari II
Voluntari II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
LPS HD Clinceni
LPS HD Clinceni
11/25/2023Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 14Teren sintetic Anghel Iordănescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Voluntari II46%
×Draw21%
LPS HD Clinceni33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voluntari II
2.06
LPS HD Clinceni
1.74

Voluntari II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 14 away

creates per match

Voluntari II
1.62
LPS HD Clinceni
1.43

allows per match

Voluntari II
2.05
LPS HD Clinceni
2.50

finishing

Voluntari II+0.00on par
LPS HD Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voluntari II ↓

LPS HD Clinceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Voluntari II or draw
67%
Voluntari II or LPS HD Clinceni
79%
Draw or LPS HD Clinceni
54%

Winning margin

Voluntari II wins by 2+
26%
LPS HD Clinceni wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Voluntari II 1+ goals
87%
Voluntari II 2+ goals
61%
Voluntari II 3+ goals
34%
LPS HD Clinceni 1+ goals
82%
LPS HD Clinceni 2+ goals
52%
LPS HD Clinceni 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Voluntari II (draw refunded)
58%
LPS HD Clinceni (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voluntari II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.05 · 42 matches

LPS HD Clinceni away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voluntari II attack 1.62 + LPS HD Clinceni defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

LPS HD Clinceni attack 1.43 + Voluntari II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Voluntari II scores more
46%
level
21%
LPS HD Clinceni scores more
33%

Voluntari II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Voluntari II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Voluntari II vs LPS HD Clinceni

Voluntari II beat LPS HD Clinceni 3-2 in Liga III - Serie 3 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Teren sintetic Anghel Iordănescu in Voluntari.