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LPS HD Clinceni vs Voluntari II — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

LPS HD Clinceni
LPS HD Clinceni
FT
6 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Voluntari II
Voluntari II
9/23/2023Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 5Clinceni - Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

LPS HD Clinceni59%
×Draw19%
Voluntari II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LPS HD Clinceni
2.50
Voluntari II
1.51

LPS HD Clinceni creates 66% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 43 away

creates per match

LPS HD Clinceni
2.54
Voluntari II
1.33

allows per match

LPS HD Clinceni
1.69
Voluntari II
2.47

finishing

LPS HD Clinceni+0.00on par
Voluntari II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPS HD Clinceni ↓

Voluntari II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

LPS HD Clinceni or draw
78%
LPS HD Clinceni or Voluntari II
81%
Draw or Voluntari II
41%

Winning margin

LPS HD Clinceni wins by 2+
38%
Voluntari II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

LPS HD Clinceni 1+ goals
92%
LPS HD Clinceni 2+ goals
71%
LPS HD Clinceni 3+ goals
45%
Voluntari II 1+ goals
78%
Voluntari II 2+ goals
44%
Voluntari II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

LPS HD Clinceni (draw refunded)
72%
Voluntari II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPS HD Clinceni at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Voluntari II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.47 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPS HD Clinceni attack 2.54 + Voluntari II defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.50

Voluntari II attack 1.33 + LPS HD Clinceni defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

LPS HD Clinceni scores more
59%
level
19%
Voluntari II scores more
22%

LPS HD Clinceni at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "LPS HD Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Serie 3: LPS HD Clinceni 6–2 Voluntari II

LPS HD Clinceni beat Voluntari II 6-2 in Liga III - Serie 3 on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Clinceni - Arena 1 in Clinceni.