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Voluntari II vs Dunarea Calarasi — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Voluntari II
Voluntari II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dunarea Calarasi
Dunarea Calarasi
11/14/2025Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 13Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Voluntari II35%
×Draw23%
Dunarea Calarasi42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voluntari II
1.55
Dunarea Calarasi
1.71

Dunarea Calarasi creates 10% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 52 away

creates per match

Voluntari II
1.62
Dunarea Calarasi
1.38

allows per match

Voluntari II
2.05
Dunarea Calarasi
1.48

finishing

Voluntari II+0.00on par
Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voluntari II ↓

Dunarea Calarasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Voluntari II or draw
58%
Voluntari II or Dunarea Calarasi
77%
Draw or Dunarea Calarasi
65%

Winning margin

Voluntari II wins by 2+
17%
Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Voluntari II 1+ goals
79%
Voluntari II 2+ goals
46%
Voluntari II 3+ goals
20%
Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals
82%
Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals
51%
Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Voluntari II (draw refunded)
46%
Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voluntari II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.05 · 42 matches

Dunarea Calarasi away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voluntari II attack 1.62 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.38 + Voluntari II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Voluntari II scores more
35%
level
23%
Dunarea Calarasi scores more
42%

Dunarea Calarasi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dunarea Calarasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Voluntari II vs Dunarea Calarasi

Dunarea Calarasi beat Voluntari II 2-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on November 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Central in Voluntari.