Dunarea Calarasi 3–1 Voluntari II: Result & Stats

Dunarea Calarasi

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Voluntari II

9/6/2025

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 2Stadionul Ion Comsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Dunarea Calarasi60%

×Draw20%

Voluntari II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunarea CalarasiExpected goals in this matchVoluntari II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.20

Dunarea Calarasi

2.19

Voluntari II

1.20

Dunarea Calarasi creates 83% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 43 away

1.90

creates per match

1.33

1.06

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Dunarea Calarasi

1.90

Voluntari II

1.33

allows per match

Dunarea Calarasi

1.06

Voluntari II

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Voluntari II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunarea Calarasi ↓

Voluntari II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dunarea Calarasi or draw

80%

Dunarea Calarasi or Voluntari II

80%

Draw or Voluntari II

40%

Winning margin

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+

37%

Voluntari II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals

89%

Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals

64%

Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals

37%

Voluntari II 1+ goals

70%

Voluntari II 2+ goals

34%

Voluntari II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)

75%

Voluntari II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunarea Calarasi at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Voluntari II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.47 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.90 + Voluntari II defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.19

Voluntari II attack 1.33 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dunarea Calarasi scores more

60%

level

20%

Voluntari II scores more

20%

Dunarea Calarasi at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dunarea Calarasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff