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Voluntari II vs CS Afumati — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Voluntari II
Voluntari II
FT
0 – 2
CS Afumati
CS Afumati
3/16/2024Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 17Teren sintetic Anghel Iordănescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Voluntari II17%
×Draw18%
CS Afumati65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voluntari II
1.14
CS Afumati
2.41

CS Afumati creates 111% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 35 away

creates per match

Voluntari II
1.62
CS Afumati
2.77

allows per match

Voluntari II
2.05
CS Afumati
0.66

finishing

Voluntari II+0.00on par
CS Afumati+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voluntari II ↓

CS Afumati →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Voluntari II or draw
35%
Voluntari II or CS Afumati
82%
Draw or CS Afumati
83%

Winning margin

Voluntari II wins by 2+
6%
CS Afumati wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Voluntari II 1+ goals
68%
Voluntari II 2+ goals
32%
Voluntari II 3+ goals
11%
CS Afumati 1+ goals
91%
CS Afumati 2+ goals
69%
CS Afumati 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Voluntari II (draw refunded)
20%
CS Afumati (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voluntari II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.05 · 42 matches

CS Afumati away — creates 2.77, concedes 0.66 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voluntari II attack 1.62 + CS Afumati defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.14

CS Afumati attack 2.77 + Voluntari II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Voluntari II scores more
17%
level
18%
CS Afumati scores more
65%

CS Afumati at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "CS Afumati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Voluntari II vs CS Afumati

CS Afumati beat Voluntari II 2-0 in Liga III - Serie 3 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Teren sintetic Anghel Iordănescu in Voluntari.