Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CS Afumati vs Voluntari II — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

CS Afumati
CS Afumati
FT
1 – 0
Voluntari II
Voluntari II
10/8/2022Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadionul Afumaţi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

CS Afumati72%
×Draw16%
Voluntari II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Afumati
2.67
Voluntari II
1.01

CS Afumati creates 164% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 43 away

creates per match

CS Afumati
2.86
Voluntari II
1.33

allows per match

CS Afumati
0.68
Voluntari II
2.47

finishing

CS Afumati+0.00on par
Voluntari II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Afumati ↓

Voluntari II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

CS Afumati or draw
88%
CS Afumati or Voluntari II
84%
Draw or Voluntari II
28%

Winning margin

CS Afumati wins by 2+
51%
Voluntari II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CS Afumati 1+ goals
93%
CS Afumati 2+ goals
74%
CS Afumati 3+ goals
49%
Voluntari II 1+ goals
64%
Voluntari II 2+ goals
27%
Voluntari II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CS Afumati (draw refunded)
86%
Voluntari II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Afumati at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.68 · 37 matches

Voluntari II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.47 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Afumati attack 2.86 + Voluntari II defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.67

Voluntari II attack 1.33 + CS Afumati defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

CS Afumati scores more
72%
level
16%
Voluntari II scores more
12%

CS Afumati at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "CS Afumati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Afumati vs Voluntari II

CS Afumati beat Voluntari II 1-0 in Liga III - Serie 3 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Afumaţi in Afumaţi.