Volta Redonda 1–0 Operario-PR: Result & Stats

Volta Redonda

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Operario-PR

Gabriel Bahia 82'

6/29/2025

Serie B · Round 14Raulino de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Volta Redonda36%

×Draw28%

Operario-PR36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volta RedondaExpected goals in this matchOperario-PR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.17

Volta Redonda

1.18

Operario-PR

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

0.80

creates per match

1.06

1.27

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Volta Redonda

0.80

Operario-PR

1.06

allows per match

Volta Redonda

1.27

Operario-PR

1.55

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volta Redonda-0.37scores less

Operario-PR+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volta Redonda ↓

Operario-PR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Volta Redonda or draw

64%

Volta Redonda or Operario-PR

72%

Draw or Operario-PR

64%

Winning margin

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

15%

Operario-PR wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

69%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

33%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

12%

Operario-PR 1+ goals

69%

Operario-PR 2+ goals

33%

Operario-PR 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

50%

Operario-PR (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volta Redonda at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.27 · 7 matches

Operario-PR away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volta Redonda attack 0.80 + Operario-PR defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.18

Operario-PR attack 1.06 + Volta Redonda defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Volta Redonda scores more

36%

level

28%

Operario-PR scores more

36%

Volta Redonda at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Volta Redonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Wellington Silva

Volta Redonda · D

7.9

Match Events

44'

Pedro Lucas

57'

ÍtaloPenalty cancelled

58'

Jhemerson← Pedro Lucas

58'

Ademilson← Rodrigo Rodrigues

66'

Robinho← Andre Luiz

66'

Lucas Tocantins← Vitinho Lopes

69'

Miranda

71'

Matheus Lucas← Italo

74'

Indio← Neto Paraiba

74'

Ronald← Vinicius Mingotti

75'

Marcos Vinicius

76'

Diogo Mateus

76'

Jhonny← Wellington Silva

76'

Leo Ceara← Rai

82'

Gabriel Bahia↳ Leo Ceara

83'

Gabriel Souza← Diogo Mateus

90+7'

Juan Zuluaga

90+1'

Gabriel Souza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VoltaOperario-PR

Overview

47%Possession53%

16Total Shots10

5Corners4

18Fouls26

Shots

16Total Shots10

2On Target1

10Off Target5

4Blocked4

10Inside Box4

6Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

402Total Passes463

340Accurate Passes386

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls26

1Yellow Cards5

8Offsides1