Volta Redonda 0–1 Operario-PR: Result & Stats

Volta Redonda

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Operario-PR

Robinho 50'

6/16/2018

Serie C · Round 10Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira (Volta Redonda, Rio de Janeiro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Volta Redonda46%

×Draw28%

Operario-PR26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volta RedondaExpected goals in this matchOperario-PR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.94

Volta Redonda

1.33

Operario-PR

0.94

Volta Redonda creates 41% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 24 away

1.57

creates per match

1.00

0.87

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Volta Redonda

1.57

Operario-PR

1.00

allows per match

Volta Redonda

0.87

Operario-PR

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Operario-PR+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volta Redonda ↓

Operario-PR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Volta Redonda or draw

74%

Volta Redonda or Operario-PR

72%

Draw or Operario-PR

54%

Winning margin

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

21%

Operario-PR wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

74%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

38%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

15%

Operario-PR 1+ goals

61%

Operario-PR 2+ goals

24%

Operario-PR 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

63%

Operario-PR (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volta Redonda at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 84 matches

Operario-PR away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volta Redonda attack 1.57 + Operario-PR defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Operario-PR attack 1.00 + Volta Redonda defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Volta Redonda scores more

46%

level

28%

Operario-PR scores more

26%

Volta Redonda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Volta Redonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Rafael Granja← Romarinho

46'

Diego Quirino← Schumacher

50'

Robinho

59'

Anselmo← Jhulliam

59'

Nubio Flavio← Dija Baiano

73'

Erick← Lucas Batatinha

83'

Serginho Paulista← Chicão

Volta

Operario-PR

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Moacir Júnior

25'▲Rafael Granja←▼Romarinho

59'▲Anselmo←▼Jhulliam

59'▲Nubio Flavio←▼Dija Baiano

Volta Redonda substitutes

GranjaAnselmoFlavioDiegoBileuGuilhermePauloGabrielPabloRogerPacheco

Manager: Gerson Gusmão

46'▲Diego Quirino←▼Schumacher

73'▲Erick←▼Lucas Batatinha

83'▲Serginho Paulista←▼Chicão

Operario-PR substitutes

QuirinoErickPaulistaReynaldoParaibaBaiaDioneParaíbaPedrinhoSoaresYuri