Volta Redonda 0–1 Coritiba: Result & Stats

Volta Redonda

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Coritiba

Wallisson 45'

10/25/2025

Serie B · Round 34Raulino de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Volta Redonda39%

×Draw32%

Coritiba29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volta RedondaExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.84

Volta Redonda

1.02

Coritiba

0.84

Volta Redonda creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 73 away

0.84

creates per match

1.00

0.68

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Volta Redonda

0.84

Coritiba

1.00

allows per match

Volta Redonda

0.68

Coritiba

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Coritiba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volta Redonda ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Volta Redonda or draw

71%

Volta Redonda or Coritiba

68%

Draw or Coritiba

61%

Winning margin

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

15%

Coritiba wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

64%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

27%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

8%

Coritiba 1+ goals

57%

Coritiba 2+ goals

21%

Coritiba 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

57%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volta Redonda at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volta Redonda attack 0.84 + Coritiba defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Coritiba attack 1.00 + Volta Redonda defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Volta Redonda scores more

39%

level

32%

Coritiba scores more

29%

Volta Redonda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Volta Redonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Alex Silva

Coritiba · D

8.2

Match Events

11'

13'

18'

24'

45'

Wallisson↳ Josue

46'

Caio Roque← Sanchez

46'

Igor Maduro← Thallyson

46'

MV← Vitinho Lopes

46'

Filipe Machado← Wallisson

53'

Italo← Ygor Catatau

59'

Maicon

70'

Chay← Bruno Barra

72'

C. de Pena← Vini Paulista

72'

Gustavo Coutinho← Dellatorre

78'

Sebastian Gomez

82'

Geovane← S. Gomez

82'

83'

85'

87'

87'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VoltaCoritiba

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots11

1.04Expected Goals (xG)0.50

6Corners1

21Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots11

3On Target2

8Off Target6

4Blocked3

8Inside Box7

7Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

481Total Passes377

420Accurate Passes298

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

21Fouls13

4Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

Serie B: Volta Redonda 0–1 Coritiba

Coritiba beat Volta Redonda 1-0 in Serie B on October 25, 2025.

Goals: Wallisson (45').

Volta Redonda controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Raulino de Oliveira in Rio de Janeiro.

Volta Redonda vs Coritiba — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Volta Redonda 0–1 Coritiba